Signal on Nifty spot · big winner · top 10% of 806 trades

13 Jul 2023expiry day

BUY ITM4+₹2,620+₹2,720 before ₹100 costs
SELL ITM4+₹2,497+₹2,597 before ₹100 costs
Entry9:40 at 19,495.25 — the 9:35 candle closed above the OR highExit19,536.90 — 11:05 candle closed through the SMA 20 — out at 11:10
19,40019,45019,50019,550OR high 19,495.6 · stop: close back belowOR low 19,449.3EntryExit9:1510:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0015:30100200EntryExit9:1511:0013:0015:00BUY · ITM4 19,300 CE bought · 197.45 → 239.30200300EntryExit9:1511:0013:0015:00SELL · ITM4 19,700 PE sold · 205.35 → 165.40
exit ruleout atwhyBUY ITM4SELL ITM4
no trail14:00back in range−₹1,176−₹1,117
SMA 510:20trail+₹3,176+₹3,017
SMA 1010:35trail+₹3,212+₹3,082
SMA 2011:10trail+₹2,620+₹2,497
half-candle14:00back in range−₹1,176−₹1,117
Same signal, five exit rules. The highlighted row is the one drawn. BUY = buy the call on an up-break, the put on a down-break. SELL = sell the put on an up-break, the call on a down-break.
Backtest data, 5-minute candles. Gold lines = 9:15–9:30 opening range; blue line = the trailing SMA. Entry at the next candle's open. A failed breakout exits at the close of the candle that fell back inside; other exits at the next open. Printed prices only. 1 lot = 65, ₹100 per trade.